Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:06:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2aec…06ca sports 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$279 (-9%) realized −$279 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%33W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$91
14 days−$322
30 days−$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$61
sports 45% −$227
crypto 7% −$25
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -6.2% -15.2% 46% 46% -13.9%
≤30d 72 -6.4% -15.3% 46% 44% -19.9%
≤90d 72 -6.4% -15.3% 46% 44% -19.9%
all 72 -6.4% -15.3% 46% 44% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 44% -19.9%
10% -23.4% 40% -27.6%
15% -30.8% 36% -34.6%
20% -37.6% 28% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$35 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$279
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses33 / 39
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage10d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $25 +$34 +133%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 −$10 -16%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $121 −$100 -83%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 +$24 +47%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $21 +$84 +408%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$22 +44%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 +$33 +64%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 +$73 +237%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $18 −$18 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$46 +226%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 +$10 +20%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $51 +$15 +29%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $51 −$4 -8%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$2 -5%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $31 −$16 -53%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $21 −$7 -33%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $66 +$39 +59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +47%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $12 −$11 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 +$75 +73%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $61 −$10 -16%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 +$32 +64%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$22 +43%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$24 +116%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 +$14 +69%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$19 -93%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$21 +103%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$19 +38%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 +$9 +31%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +116%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $50 +$7 +13%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $30 +$7 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$23 +46%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $59 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $68 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 42¢ $25 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $10 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $101 2h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $74 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 99¢ $104 2h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 5h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $51 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $73 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 9h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 13h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 13h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $18 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $51 25h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 25h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 26h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 28h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 83¢ $61 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 33h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 42h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $51 45h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 57¢ $64 45h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 16¢ $47 46h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records