Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2A 0x2aec…5cf4 crypto 809 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 44d only
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6,908 (+5%) realized +$6,908 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate95%767W / 42L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day60.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$432
7 days+$2,207
14 days+$4,120
30 days+$4,809
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6,040
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 +6.6% -3.5% 99% 16% -3.4%
≤30d 484 +5.4% -4.7% 96% 17% -5.8%
≤90d 809 +5.4% -4.6% 95% 19% -5.7%
all 809 +5.4% -4.6% 95% 19% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 19% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.7% 11% -14.8%
15% -22.1% 7% -23.0%
20% -29.7% 4% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$217 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,908
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses767 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)809 / 809
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$178
Trades / day60.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 809 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $401 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $323 +$94 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $297 +$65 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $301 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $399 +$27 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $401 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $304 +$143 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $401 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $200 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $400 +$17 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $202 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $400 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $200 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $290 +$10 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $180 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $201 +$16 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $360 +$150 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 21 $232 +$64 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $290 +$41 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $404 −$404 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $401 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $401 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $200 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $246 +$35 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $173 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $402 +$30 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $110 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $401 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $83 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $208 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $400 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 20 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $401 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $171 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $401 +$21 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $400 +$15 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $401 +$23 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $307 +$265 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $276 −$276 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $200 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $74 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $201 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $37 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $46 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $17 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $201 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records