Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:12:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2af1…6b27 world 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$404 (-3%) realized −$403 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +101% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip
Net edge+55%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%13W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$185
14 days−$235
30 days−$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$123
politics 14% −$47
tech 10% −$49
other 9% −$82
finance 7% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+81.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +24.1% +12.3% 11% 7% -20.7%
≤30d 66 +102.6% +83.3% 20% 11% -14.8%
≤90d 67 +100.9% +81.7% 19% 10% -14.8%
all 67 +100.9% +81.7% 19% 10% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +81.7% 10% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here +64.4% 10% -23.0%
15% +48.5% 10% -30.4%
20% +33.9% 10% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +101% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +131% → late +72% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$403
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses13 / 54
Open positions22
Markets (closed)67 / 89
History coverage30d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 72¢ 79¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? No 62¢ 80¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+31%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Yes 64¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+44%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 74¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? No 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Yes 40¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be below 1%? Yes 44¢ 35¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 61¢ 72¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 77¢ 40¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-48%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 32¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+30%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 69¢ 66¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 31¢ 17¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI 24¢ 26¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? No 47¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 83¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-81%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 42¢ 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Yes 61¢ 32¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-48%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? No 16¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-28%)
Florentino Perez out as Real Madrid president by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-48%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-46%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 26¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-94%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 54¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 17 $14 −$1 -10%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $30 −$17 -58%
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $32 −$1 -4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 15 $50 −$10 -20%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $136 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $214 −$17 -8%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $108 −$8 -8%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $100 −$8 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $75 −$47 -64%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $233 −$2 -1%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 14 $22 −$6 -30%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $153 −$5 -4%
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? Jun 13 $26 −$4 -17%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 13 $68 −$16 -24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $78 −$2 -3%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $22 −$10 -43%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $286 +$4 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 12 $101 −$4 -4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 11 $444 −$20 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $264 −$2 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 11 $52 −$3 -7%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $51 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $63 +$2 +4%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be between 1% and 1 Jun 10 $50 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $56 −$49 -88%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $32 +$7 +21%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima Jun 06 $18 −$6 -33%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $86 −$2 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 30 $265 −$10 -4%
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? May 30 $28 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $317 +$8 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 27 $288 +$1 +0%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 27 $33 +$1 +2%
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? May 27 $156 −$8 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 26 $374 −$5 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 26 $71 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $437 −$6 -2%
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? May 26 $50 −$4 -8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 25 $156 −$2 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 25 $38 +$4 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 25 $150 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $152 −$2 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 25 $334 −$2 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 24 $491 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 24 $26 −$4 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 13¢ $9 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 13¢ $19 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 12¢ $8 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 13¢ $20 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 65¢ $64 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 65¢ $65 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 2h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 56¢ $8 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 3h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 56¢ $9 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 4h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 4h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL No 58¢ $7 6h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 57¢ $8 6h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL No 27¢ $13 6h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY No 29¢ $14 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 61¢ $44 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 61¢ $6 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 61¢ $23 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 61¢ $15 11h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi SELL Yes 39¢ $16 12h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY Yes 39¢ $16 12h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 12¢ $17 14h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 12¢ $1 14h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 12¢ $1 14h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 12¢ $19 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 69¢ $60 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 16h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 16h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 69¢ $3 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.13 · official $8.58 · 968 history records