Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2A 0x2af3…f814 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$80 (-47%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip
Net edge-68%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$64
other 11% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-67.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -28.9% -35.7% 0% 0% -45.6%
≤30d 4 -64.4% -67.8% 0% 0% -53.6%
≤90d 4 -64.4% -67.8% 0% 0% -53.6%
all 4 -64.4% -67.8% 0% 0% -53.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.8% 0% -53.6%
10% -70.9% 0% -58.0%
15% -73.7% 0% -62.1%
20% -76.3% 0% -65.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$21 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage17d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $44 $0 -1%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $101 −$57 -57%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 47¢ $43 33m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $44 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Japan 26¢ $44 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 58¢ $101 4h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $6 17d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records