Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:25:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2A
0x2af3…bcb4
weather · 89 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$43 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$56 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$86
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses20 / 57
Open positions12
Markets (closed)77 / 89
History coverage11d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day25.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 12 History 77 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$50
14 days−$56
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 14? No 71¢ 76¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 72¢ 72¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 14? No 64¢ 98¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? No 66¢ 100¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? No 64¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 63¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? No 71¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? No 70¢ 62¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? No 64¢ 55¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? No 71¢ 62¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 72¢ 69¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? No 70¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? No 67¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 14 $6 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 13 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$4 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 12 $6 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 8? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 7? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 7? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 12 $6 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$5 +614%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? Jun 09 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$5 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 08 $5 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 07 $15 −$1 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? SELL No 61¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 63¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 73¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? SELL No 72¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 68¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? SELL No 64¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 58¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 62¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 67¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 37¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 0¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? SELL No 50¢ $4 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -2.3% -11.6% 33% 33% -27.9%
≤30d 77 -7.2% -16.1% 26% 25% -27.0%
≤90d 77 -7.2% -16.1% 26% 25% -27.0%
all 77 -7.2% -16.1% 26% 25% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 25% -27.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 19% -34.0%
15% -31.4% 16% -40.4%
20% -38.2% 6% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.32 · official $86.32 (match) · 288 history records