Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:08:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2A 0x2af6…d494 weather 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%97W / 6L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$11
other 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 41 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 85 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 103 +0.2% -9.3% 94% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×76.07 per $1 lost it wins $76.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses97 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage127d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $231 $231 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 27? Jun 28 $230 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 27 $230 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 26? Jun 26 $231 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $230 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 24? Jun 25 $230 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? Jun 21 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $228 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $228 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $141 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $88 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $91 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $227 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $228 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 9? Jun 10 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $228 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 8? Jun 09 $227 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on June 6? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 19°C on June 6? Jun 06 $205 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 5? Jun 06 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $173 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 3? Jun 03 $224 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 31? Jun 01 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on May 30? May 31 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on May 29? May 30 $221 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 28? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 28? May 29 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on May 27? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 27? May 28 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 62°F or higher on May May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on May 17? May 20 $9 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $231 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $230 14h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $230 39h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $231 2d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $230 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $230 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $77 6d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $221 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $8 7d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $228 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $228 9d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 11d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $7 11d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $90 13d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $141 13d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $88 13d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $139 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $91 14d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $227 15d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $3 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $12 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $213 16d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $226 17d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 83°F or below on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $226 18d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $228 19d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $227 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.35 · official $231.35 (match) · 212 history records