Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:55:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

2A 0x2af6…1af9 crypto 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died

Total PnL −$26 (-11%) realized −$27 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR55%break-even

Win rate55%6W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Kalshi-fit58%portable

Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$7

7 days+$9

14 days−$22

30 days−$22

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +55%

net ROI/market (all)+5.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+62.0%	+46.6%	67%	67%	+49.2%
≤30d	5	+27.1%	+15.0%	40%	40%	-28.5%
≤90d	11	+16.9%	+5.8%	55%	55%	-28.4%
all	11	+16.9%	+5.8%	55%	55%	-28.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.8%	55%	-28.4%
10%	-4.3%	55%	-35.3%
15%	-13.6%	55%	-41.5%
20%	-22.0%	36%	-47.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 64% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.39 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage

Net worth$113

Realized−$27

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses6 / 5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)11 / 12

History coverage43d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	83¢	84¢	$112	$113	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$6	+$7	+134%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 22	$5	$0	-5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$4	+$2	+57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$64	−$31	-49%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 14	$28	$0	-2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	May 15	$2	+$1	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	May 12	$4	−$4	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	May 12	$4	+$1	+36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	May 11	$2	+$2	+93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	May 11	$10	−$10	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	May 11	$5	+$4	+79%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$100	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	82¢	$13	13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$6	19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	50¢	$5	20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	51¢	$5	2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	63¢	$4	8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	10¢	$4	8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	75¢	$28	8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	90¢	$28	8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	91¢	$28	8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	40¢	$29	8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	47¢	$35	8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$2	39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$4	42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$4	42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$2	42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$10	42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$5	42d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.63 · official $112.63 (match) · 24 history records