Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2A 0x2afa…a29e sports 472 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$9 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%180W / 280L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$80
14 days−$192
30 days−$406
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$291
other 22% +$143
world 5% +$40
crypto 5% −$32
tech 3% −$63
politics 0% −$7
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -22.9% -30.2% 40% 34% -16.5%
≤30d 217 -22.4% -29.8% 32% 29% -19.5%
≤90d 460 -10.3% -18.9% 39% 36% -11.6%
all 460 -10.3% -18.9% 39% 36% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 36% -11.6%
10% -26.6% 31% -20.0%
15% -33.7% 25% -27.8%
20% -40.2% 19% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$7 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$9
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses180 / 280
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions12
Markets (closed)460 / 472
History coverage85d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs REKONIX 40¢ 44¢ $41 $45 +$4 (+9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+77%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+23%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 50¢ 7¢ $39 $5 −$33 (-86%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 12¢ 20¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+73%)
Will Lamine Yamal score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 23¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-44%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 9¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 23¢ 3¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $26 −$22 -84%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $109 +$12 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $91 −$10 -11%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $30 −$29 -96%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 22 $21 −$9 -42%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 −$1 -10%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$8 -38%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 21 $20 −$3 -13%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $15 +$8 +51%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$3 -26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$7 -66%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 20 $28 +$6 +21%
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $20 +$13 +64%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 57.5 and 58 million views in wee Jun 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 56.5 and 57 million views in wee Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $8 +$3 +34%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$2 +30%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $10 +$7 +70%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 +$2 +34%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 +$2 +205%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Jun 19 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +130%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $2 +$2 +88%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $6 +$6 +104%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 52.5 million views on day Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $1 +$2 +172%
Spread: Panama (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 9-15? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lionel Messi score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $24 +$12 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY REKONIX 40¢ $42 41m
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 12¢ $4 56m
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C SELL Grind Back 80¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C SELL Grind Back 80¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C SELL Grind Back 80¢ $32 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY Grind Back 60¢ $28 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 46¢ $29 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 68¢ $26 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $31 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL GLYPH 3¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY GLYPH 68¢ $30 2h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $5 2h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C SELL GLYPH 83¢ $84 3h
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C BUY GLYPH 79¢ $81 3h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 5¢ $12 3h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Execration 59¢ $20 6h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 7h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) SELL New Zealand 15¢ $5 8h
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 16¢ $5 8h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $5 8h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner SELL Carstensz 30¢ $13 31h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 46¢ $20 31h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As SELL Grind Back 59¢ $18 31h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 SELL Under 89¢ $23 32h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 63¢ $5 32h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $5 32h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 32h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 67¢ $20 32h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 42h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 17¢ $3 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.91 · official $88.94 (match) · 1164 history records