Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:17:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2A 0x2afc…997c sports 268 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,426 (-4%) realized −$1,377 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate49%130W / 137L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$446est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days+$30
14 days−$150
30 days−$477
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$2,027
other 3% +$228
crypto 0% +$46
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +12.1% +1.4% 60% 60% -8.4%
≤30d 109 +11.3% +0.7% 50% 44% -13.6%
≤90d 243 -2.0% -11.4% 49% 44% -15.6%
all 267 -1.8% -11.1% 49% 44% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 44% -14.2%
10% -19.6% 39% -22.4%
15% -27.4% 32% -29.9%
20% -34.5% 23% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$55 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,377
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses130 / 137
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$446
Open positions1
Markets (closed)267 / 268
History coverage109d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $62 +$8 +13%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $50 +$45 +90%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $27 +$33 +124%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 +$24 +90%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$42 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $53 +$55 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $60 −$59 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $61 −$25 -42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $54 +$26 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $53 −$9 -17%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $45 +$25 +55%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $55 −$23 -43%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $38 −$14 -36%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $45 +$9 +21%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$23 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $54 +$46 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 +$24 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$16 -32%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $46 −$45 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$18 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$27 +52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $58 −$32 -56%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $255 +$47 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $34 +$5 +16%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$12 +60%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $101 +$24 +24%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$16 -31%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$42 -83%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $23 −$7 -31%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $43 −$42 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $126 +$43 +34%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $51 +$41 +81%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $448 −$259 -58%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$1 +1%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $51 +$31 +60%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $389 +$15 +4%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $101 −$29 -28%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $26 −$25 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $153 +$29 +19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $619 +$38 +6%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $542 +$78 +14%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $544 +$148 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 70¢ $4 25m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 70¢ $2 25m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 70¢ $2 25m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 70¢ $6 25m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 70¢ $2 25m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 70¢ $2 25m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 70¢ $1 25m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 70¢ $1 25m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 70¢ $2 25m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 70¢ $16 25m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 70¢ $32 25m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $62 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 95¢ $95 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $50 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $34 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $15 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $1 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $1 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $4 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $2 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $5 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $1 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $1 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $5 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $29 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $46 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $3 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $26 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $27 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $101 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.33 · official $0.05 (match) · 525 history records