Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:34:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2A 0x2aff…0b7d crypto 317 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate47%148W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$21
14 days−$35
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$56
sports 13% +$95
world 9% −$4
other 7% −$19
politics 2% −$4
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.7% -10.2% 36% 36% -13.5%
≤30d 102 -45.5% -50.7% 25% 22% -23.2%
≤90d 316 -2.3% -11.6% 47% 35% -9.2%
all 316 -2.3% -11.6% 47% 35% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 35% -9.2%
10% -20.0% 25% -17.9%
15% -27.8% 19% -25.8%
20% -34.8% 18% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses148 / 168
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)316 / 317
History coverage85d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 316 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $30 +$21 +71%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $30 +$30 +97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $61 −$5 -7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $30 −$2 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $30 −$1 -3%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $30 +$19 +62%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $30 −$30 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 +$28 +93%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $150 −$23 -15%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 +$33 +109%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 18 $61 −$4 -6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$17 +55%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 14 $30 $0 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $35 $0 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $61 −$3 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $40 +$4 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $30 +$19 +62%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $30 +$30 +97%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $30 +$26 +86%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $30 $0 -1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 07 $41 −$11 -28%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 04 $10 +$9 +90%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $20 +$1 +4%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $10 +$9 +86%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? May 31 $26 −$2 -7%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $10 −$10 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $5 +$3 +65%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $10 −$5 -49%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $5 +$4 +76%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 30 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 29 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 6h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $30 20h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 50¢ $30 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 48¢ $29 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $30 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 48¢ $29 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 49¢ $30 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 61¢ $30 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $30 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 49¢ $30 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 49¢ $30 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 51¢ $27 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 55¢ $30 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 63¢ $30 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 59¢ $40 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $30 7d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el SELL No 56¢ $28 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $30 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $24 8d
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el BUY No 58¢ $31 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 51¢ $37 9d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 10d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 31¢ $23 10d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 66¢ $30 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.76 · official $29.76 (match) · 1556 history records