Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

2A 0x2aff…c0d2 crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1 (-3%) realized −$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%11W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1per market

Trades / day4.5pace

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-8.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	19	-0.9%	-10.3%	47%	47%	-18.0%
≤30d	22	+1.6%	-8.1%	50%	50%	-16.6%
≤90d	22	+1.6%	-8.1%	50%	50%	-16.6%
all	22	+1.6%	-8.1%	50%	50%	-16.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.1%	50%	-16.6%
10%	-16.9%	45%	-24.6%
15%	-24.9%	45%	-31.9%
20%	-32.3%	27%	-38.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -2% → late +5% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.76 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$8

Realized−$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses11 / 11

Open positions8

Markets (closed)22 / 30

History coverage11d

Avg bet$1

Trades / day4.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	No	32¢	32¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	No	29¢	28¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	No	29¢	28¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	No	25¢	24¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	No	24¢	24¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	No	19¢	18¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	No	12¢	12¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Jun 15	$1	+$1	+119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Jun 15	$1	+$1	+53%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$1	$0	-7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Jun 14	$1	+$1	+90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Jun 14	$1	+$2	+166%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 14	$1	$0	+48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 14	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	$0	-10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 14	$2	$0	-9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 14	$1	$0	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 14	$1	$0	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 14	$1	$0	+41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 14	$3	−$1	-44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 14	$1	−$1	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Jun 14	$1	+$1	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 05	$1	$0	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 05	$1	+$1	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 05	$2	−$1	-51%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	12¢	$1	1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	25¢	$1	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	29¢	$1	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	24¢	$1	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	29¢	$1	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	32¢	$1	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	19¢	$1	1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	24¢	$1	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	BUY Up	44¢	$1	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	SELL Down	85¢	$2	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$1	33h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	33¢	$1	34h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$1	42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$1	42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$1	42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$1	42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$1	44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$1	44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$1	44h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	2¢	$1	44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	6¢	$1	44h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$1	44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	SELL Up	94¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	SELL Down	26¢	$0	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	SELL Down	83¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$1	2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	27¢	$1	2d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	34¢	$1	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.86 · official $7.86 (match) · 58 history records