Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:22:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b01…b2aa world 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate32%26W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$5
other 20% −$12
politics 12% +$5
sports 8% −$5
economics 3% +$1
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 27 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 4% -9.9%
≤90d 69 -2.4% -11.7% 32% 1% -9.8%
all 81 -3.8% -12.9% 32% 4% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 4% -10.2%
10% -21.3% 1% -18.8%
15% -28.9% 1% -26.6%
20% -35.8% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses26 / 55
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage528d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $32 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $141 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $63 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $87 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $38 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $87 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $84 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $129 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $45 −$4 -9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $83 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $78 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $39 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $46 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $75 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $16 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $39 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $27 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $33 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $48 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee May 18 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $87 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $8 $0 -2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $41 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $97 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $3 −$3 -77%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $2 $0 -7%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $54 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $4 $0 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $68 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $25 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 64¢ $26 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $6 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $6 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $1 34h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $1 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $23 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $39 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $41 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $5 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $7 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $39 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $37 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $34 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $43 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $43 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 37¢ $27 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 37¢ $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $0.00 (match) · 365 history records