Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b03…1e27 crypto 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$100 (+1%) realized +$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate92%143W / 13L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 89d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +3.2% -6.6% 94% 12% -6.5%
≤30d 32 +3.2% -6.6% 94% 12% -6.5%
≤90d 156 -1.5% -10.9% 92% 3% -6.8%
all 156 -1.5% -10.9% 92% 3% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 3% -6.8%
10% -19.4% 2% -15.7%
15% -27.2% 1% -23.9%
20% -34.3% 1% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$30 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses143 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 156
History coverage89d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $300 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $401 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $593 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $84 +$19 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $98 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $514 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $481 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 23 $173 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $246 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$19 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $169 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $183 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $198 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $23 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $227 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $917 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $107 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $789 +$17 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $507 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $38 −$36 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $133 +$143 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 27 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 27 $94 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 27 $95 −$47 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 27 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 27 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $19 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $51 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $19 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $28 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $92 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 604 history records