Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:58:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2B 0x2b07…c8e3 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,325 (-20%) realized −$1,325 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate90%43W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$154
sports 19% −$1,174
world 2% +$2
politics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 24 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 48 -5.6% -14.6% 90% 6% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 6% -28.5%
10% -22.7% 4% -35.4%
15% -30.2% 4% -41.6%
20% -37.0% 4% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$270 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized−$1,325
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses43 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage226d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $230 $230 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 29 $230 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 23 $199 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 20 $225 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $230 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 15 $220 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 02 $228 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 25 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 18 $220 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 15 $78 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $225 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 04 $225 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 28 $210 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 21 $120 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 07 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 07 $220 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Apr 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 02 $120 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Mar 27 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Mar 27 $140 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 21 $220 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 17 $49 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026? Mar 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 05 $2 $0 +6%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-28? Feb 26 $164 −$164 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 26 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)? Feb 25 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Canada win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympic Feb 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will Australia record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 25 $55 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 202 Feb 19 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Rese Feb 03 $10 +$1 +5%
Will RU Saint-Gilloise win on 2026-01-21? Jan 30 $15 $0 +3%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Suns vs. Pelicans Dec 30 $10 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Preasy Mix vs CSDIILIT (BO3) Dec 30 $11 +$9 +75%
Clippers vs. Trail Blazers Dec 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 27 $1 $0 +22%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 27 $5 +$5 +108%
Will Elche CF vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? Nov 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Canucks vs. Hurricanes Nov 14 $1,174 −$1,174 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $230 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $230 3d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $199 6d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 6d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $225 10d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $230 13d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $220 27d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $228 35d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 42d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $220 44d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 47d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $78 51d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 51d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 51d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $225 54d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 56d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 56d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $225 62d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $210 69d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 76d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 78d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $83 83d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 83d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 83d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $220 88d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 94d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 94d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $140 98d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 100d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $220 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.03 · official $230.03 (match) · 93 history records