trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 2 | -49.8% | -54.6% | 50% | 0% | -39.5% |
| all | 11 | -11.0% | -19.5% | 55% | 9% | -18.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.5% | 9% | -18.9% |
| 10% | -27.2% | 9% | -26.6% |
| 15% | -34.2% | 9% | -33.7% |
| 20% | -40.6% | 0% | -40.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | No | 68¢ | 66¢ | $26 | $25 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | May 05 | $33 | −$33 | -100% |
| Trump out as President by March 31? | Apr 01 | $65 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? | Mar 17 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | Feb 28 | $121 | +$8 | +7% |
| Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 28 | $95 | −$71 | -74% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Feb 27 | $32 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Feb 22 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? | Feb 10 | $123 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legis | Feb 09 | $42 | +$19 | +46% |
| Venezuela election scheduled by January 31, 2026? | Feb 01 | $123 | +$1 | +1% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 28 | $49 | $0 | -0% |