Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:51:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2b0a…0190
other · 54 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$79 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$43 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses17 / 33
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage51d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%
Chart Positions 3 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days−$134
14 days−$135
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Germany 18¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-61%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +18%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $43 +$109 +251%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $175 −$18 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $44 −$13 -29%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $193 −$104 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Jun 09 $27 −$16 -59%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 09 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 09 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 09 $40 +$27 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $68 −$21 -30%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $12 −$2 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $194 −$41 -21%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $16 +$9 +56%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $37 −$10 -27%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$17 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $39 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $10 −$3 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $231 +$45 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $18 −$15 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $25 −$2 -7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $82 +$13 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $37 −$13 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $21 −$8 -40%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $36 +$66 +182%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 6? May 06 $35 −$35 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 6? May 06 $28 +$20 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $146 −$7 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 5? May 05 $8 −$7 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 5? May 05 $1 +$7 +854%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $231 +$17 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $220 −$84 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 3? May 03 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 1? May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 03 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $134 +$68 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 30? Apr 30 $32 +$8 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $56 −$33 -59%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $14 +$100 +695%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 27? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on April 27? Apr 27 $12 +$8 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 26? Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 25? Apr 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $80 −$24 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $37 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 25? Apr 25 $68 +$31 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 92% −$43
weather 8% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-5.5) SELL Germany 22¢ $2 34m
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 4h
Spread: Germany (-5.5) BUY Germany 18¢ $2 4h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 5h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $64 26h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $43 26h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 28h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 33h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 33h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 33h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 33h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 33h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 33h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 33h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 33h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 33h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 34h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 31¢ $5 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 39h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 39h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 39h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $41 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $18 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -26.1% -33.1% 18% 18% -23.0%
≤30d 24 -24.9% -32.0% 25% 21% -18.2%
≤90d 50 +8.6% -1.8% 34% 28% -10.8%
all 50 +8.6% -1.8% 34% 28% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 28% -10.8%
10% -11.2% 22% -19.3%
15% -19.8% 20% -27.1%
20% -27.6% 18% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.47 · official $19.47 (match) · 288 history records