Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2B 0x2b0b…3088 other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$585 (+13%) realized +$585 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$210
7 days+$543
14 days+$822
30 days+$822
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$1,251
sports 12% −$188
world 6% −$241
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -2.7% -11.9% 55% 55% +8.0%
≤30d 28 -12.6% -20.9% 46% 46% +8.3%
≤90d 28 -12.6% -20.9% 46% 46% +8.3%
all 28 -12.6% -20.9% 46% 46% +8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 46% +8.3%
10% -28.5% 46% -2.0%
15% -35.4% 39% -11.5%
20% -41.7% 36% -20.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$97 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$585
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage9d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $117 +$278 +238%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $126 −$62 -50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$90 +90%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $65 −$64 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $171 +$99 +58%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $440 +$294 +67%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $245 −$241 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $309 +$341 +110%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 +$35 +57%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $122 +$28 +23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $199 +$101 +50%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $122 +$28 +23%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $391 −$386 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $24 +$12 +49%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $274 +$226 +83%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $581 +$652 +112%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $118 +$98 +83%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $176 −$174 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $179 −$176 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $208 −$42 -20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $99 −$74 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $43 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 29¢ $28 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $46 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 21¢ $59 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $83 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $43 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No $6 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $65 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $162 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $40 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 42¢ $64 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 76¢ $223 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $35 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $37 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 50¢ $31 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $38 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 55¢ $84 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 56¢ $85 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $176 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $76 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $131 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $178 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 60¢ $96 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $61 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $40 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $122 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $69 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records