Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:58:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b0f…8fa4 crypto 384 markets active 3d ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate75%287W / 97L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$49
14 days−$49
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$38
other 4% −$18
world 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -19.0% -26.7% 46% 10% -17.5%
≤30d 222 -6.4% -15.3% 69% 16% -12.7%
≤90d 373 -4.6% -13.6% 75% 10% -11.4%
all 384 -4.9% -14.0% 75% 11% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 11% -11.4%
10% -22.2% 2% -19.9%
15% -29.7% 1% -27.6%
20% -36.6% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses287 / 97
Open positions0
Markets (closed)384 / 384
History coverage119d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 384 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1078 history records