Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:13:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2B 0x2b10…90be world 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$217 (+2%) realized +$217 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate40%36W / 53L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$233now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$198
sports 28% +$21
other 21% −$2
politics 5% −$3
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +13.9% +3.1% 60% 20% -7.9%
≤30d 21 +2.2% -7.5% 38% 5% -8.0%
≤90d 35 +0.5% -9.1% 40% 9% -7.7%
all 89 -2.5% -11.8% 40% 7% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 7% -7.8%
10% -20.2% 6% -16.6%
15% -27.9% 3% -24.7%
20% -35.0% 3% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×9.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.29 per $1 lost it wins $10.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$233
Realized+$217
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses36 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions3
Markets (closed)89 / 92
History coverage472d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 87¢ 87¢ $232 $232 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 91¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $233 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $171 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $229 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +66%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $431 +$15 +4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $447 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $640 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $191 −$1 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $219 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $235 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $201 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $949 +$59 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 -7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 27 $18 −$5 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $151 +$4 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $160 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $209 +$8 +4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $174 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $160 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $48 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $81 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $351 $0 -0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $112 −$1 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $91 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $91 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 23 $44 +$5 +11%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $295 −$4 -2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $672 +$13 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $2,168 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $302 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $192 +$116 +60%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $224 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $1,053 +$2 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $1 $0 -7%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $13 $0 -2%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Dec 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 02 $2 $0 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? Oct 23 $2 +$1 +24%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 23 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $64 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $168 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $27 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $63 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $143 5h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $84 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $48 9h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $101 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $38 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $97 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $15 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $119 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $62 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $94 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $171 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $255 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $253 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $57 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $158 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $176 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $52 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $116 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $108 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.42 · official $232.29 (match) · 361 history records