Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b11…9f63 crypto 438 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$890 (-17%) realized −$863 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%170W / 253L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$327
7 days+$72
14 days+$72
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$196
weather 25% −$740
crypto 21% +$26
world 20% +$17
politics 4% −$12
sports 2% +$27
finance 1% −$28
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -5.0% -14.0% 48% 33% -5.1%
≤30d 30 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 37% -5.7%
≤90d 391 -26.5% -33.5% 36% 31% -27.6%
all 423 -19.6% -27.3% 40% 36% -26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 36% -26.1%
10% -34.2% 32% -33.2%
15% -40.6% 30% -39.6%
20% -46.4% 26% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$407
Realized−$863
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses170 / 253
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions15
Markets (closed)423 / 438
History coverage92d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 423 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $120 $120 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 58¢ 57¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $28 −$12 (-29%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 45¢ 48¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 40¢ 40¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? No 57¢ 54¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 64¢ 60¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 45¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? No 32¢ 26¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 34¢ $11 $1 −$10 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 195 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$28 +28%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $61 +$57 +94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $44 +$9 +21%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 −$148 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $161 −$127 -79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $263 +$171 +65%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $21 −$11 -52%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $99 +$150 +152%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$13 +64%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $156 +$107 +68%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$4 -8%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Jun 14 $10 −$1 -6%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 14 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 +$4 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $16 +$17 +105%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 22 $5 +$1 +12%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $166 −$10 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 03 $50 −$50 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 03 $237 +$12 +5%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $50 −$12 -24%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 23 $34 −$34 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $31 −$18 -59%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $100 −$83 -83%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 22 $32 +$62 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 20? Apr 19 $5 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on April 20? Apr 19 $10 −$5 -55%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 20? Apr 19 $10 −$5 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on April 20? Apr 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on April 19? Apr 19 $10 +$14 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 19? Apr 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 19? Apr 18 $13 −$7 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on April 18? Apr 18 $12 −$7 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 19? Apr 18 $14 −$9 -66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 19? Apr 18 $9 −$5 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 19? Apr 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 18? Apr 18 $13 −$6 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 55m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 58¢ $50 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $25 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $25 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 77¢ $129 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 40¢ $20 11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 57¢ $20 15h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $20 17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 45¢ $20 17h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $101 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $51 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $51 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 61¢ $118 28h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $51 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $53 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $44 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $50 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $51 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $51 42h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $102 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 87¢ $384 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 2d
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 66¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $50 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $31 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $54 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $54 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $407.01 · official $407.01 (match) · 1372 history records