Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:24:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2B 0x2b14…13dc sports 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$397 (-10%) realized −$386 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%59W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$158
14 days+$241
30 days+$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$153
other 33% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +13.9% +3.1% 60% 60% +8.3%
≤30d 48 +11.1% +0.5% 60% 60% +10.1%
≤90d 57 -4.8% -13.9% 51% 51% -2.2%
all 146 -0.2% -9.7% 40% 39% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 39% -15.3%
10% -18.3% 39% -23.4%
15% -26.2% 38% -30.8%
20% -33.5% 33% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$20 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$386
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses59 / 87
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)146 / 160
History coverage142d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 100¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+100%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 50¢ 100¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+100%)
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 33¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Team to Take First Jun 23 $25 +$17 +67%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $25 +$25 +97%
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Jun 22 $26 −$25 -98%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 22 $54 +$80 +149%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $25 +$16 +65%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $25 +$25 +97%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $25 +$13 +50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$16 +65%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herze Jun 18 $25 +$23 +89%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $25 +$18 +70%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $34 +$31 +90%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $25 +$24 +93%
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $44 +$90 +206%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 +$18 +73%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots Jun 17 $2 +$2 +97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$13 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 +$37 +146%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$13 +50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 +$16 +65%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $25 +$21 +81%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 +$24 +93%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $84 +$46 +55%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $47 −$46 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$21 +83%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $25 +$12 +48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $24 −$23 -98%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Paraguay win o Jun 13 $25 +$14 +55%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 +$40 +158%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 +$13 +50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $25 +$10 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $75 +$27 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 02 $100 +$114 +114%
FC Porto vs. CD Tondela: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $110 −$8 -8%
Pistons vs. Bulls Apr 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $24 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $25 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 34¢ $26 8h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Iraq: Team to Take First BUY 59¢ $25 9h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $25 9h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $54 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 25h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 58¢ $25 26h
Uruguay to score first vs. Cabo Verde? AND Belgium to score first vs. BUY 53¢ $25 30h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY 52¢ $25 30h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $25 34h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $25 40h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 54¢ $25 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY 54¢ $25 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $25 3d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY 52¢ $25 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $25 3d
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $26 4d
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herze BUY 52¢ $25 4d
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 5d
James Rodríguez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $16 5d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 52¢ $34 5d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $133 5d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $44 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 1 BUY 52¢ $25 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $26 5d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.91 · official $161.91 (match) · 389 history records