Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2B 0x2b15…fa73 sports 957 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$220 (+0%) realized +$220 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate53%572W / 509L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$2,803est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 127d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$12,256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -87.7% -88.9% 10% 3% -77.6%
≤30d 262 -46.1% -51.2% 37% 19% -34.7%
≤90d 551 -14.5% -22.6% 56% 33% -13.9%
all 1081 -8.8% -17.5% 53% 41% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 41% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 39% -22.0%
15% -32.6% 36% -29.5%
20% -39.2% 33% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$110 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$220
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses572 / 509
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$2,803
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1081 / 957
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$216
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1081 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Athletics 53¢ 52¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 454 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: UC Davis Aggies (-6.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Gr Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: GnG Amazigh vs 3BL Esports (BO3) - Arabian League Group Stage Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
UAB Blazers vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane: O/U 160.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Portland State Vikings (-7.5) Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 211.5 Jun 21 $108 −$108 -100%
Buffalo Bulls vs. South Alabama Jaguars: O/U 143.5 Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs WHITEBIRD (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Gro Jun 21 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-13.5) Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $639 −$639 -100%
Spread: Raptors (-8.5) Jun 21 $1,199 −$1,199 -100%
Valorant: VR2 vs FULL BOX 200 (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group A Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Colorado Buffaloes vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: O/U 155.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: 76ers (-3.5) Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Milwaukee Panthers vs. IU Indy Jaguars: O/U 159.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 21.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Fresno State Bulldogs (-1.5) Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Nets (-4.5) Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Joint (+1.5) Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Eastern Michigan Eagles vs. Kent State Golden Flashes: O/U 144.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Toledo Rockets vs. Western Michigan Broncos: O/U 155.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Rotterdam Open, Qualification: Hugo Gaston vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: North Alabama Lions (-1.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Furman Paladins vs. Mercer Bears: O/U 151.5 Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: George Washington Revolutionaries (-3.5) Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Stanford Cardinal vs. Boston College Eagles: O/U 139.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Map Handicap: DRX (-1.5) vs ZETA DIVISION (+1.5) Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Se Jun 21 $60 −$60 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs DRX Challengers (+1.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Central Connecticut State Blue Devils (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Spurs vs. Mavericks: O/U 224.5 Jun 21 $805 −$805 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Clippers: O/U 221.5 Jun 21 $3,026 −$3,020 -100%
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 140.5 Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: O/U 141.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 222.5 Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $67 −$67 -100%
Hornets vs. Rockets: O/U 217.5 Jun 21 $1,529 −$1,529 -100%
Heat vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5 Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Tennessee State Tigers (-14.5) Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: New Hampshire Wildcats (-1.5) Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Boston Terriers vs. Army Black Knights: O/U 141.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Loyola Maryland Greyhounds vs. Lafayette Leopards: O/U 146.5 Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Bulls vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5 Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 53¢ $50 2m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $19 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 96¢ $130 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $5 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 97¢ $67 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 99¢ $18 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 99¢ $4 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 98¢ $242 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 23¢ $29 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 23¢ $41 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 23¢ $1 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 23¢ $12 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 23¢ $1 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 23¢ $5 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 23¢ $12 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 53¢ $408 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 53¢ $11 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 53¢ $11 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $13 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $20 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $14 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $23 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $5 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $10 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $6 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $32 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $7 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $8 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $5 2h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 65¢ $16 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.50 · official $48.50 (match) · 3500 history records