Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2B 0x2b16…cbe4 world 251 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate92%197W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$292now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$28
other 26% +$17
politics 14% +$15
crypto 8% −$1
sports 6% +$3
finance 5% +$6
culture 3% +$1
tech 2% +$1
economics 1% −$3
weather 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -6.3% -15.2% 79% 42% -3.3%
≤30d 26 -5.4% -14.4% 81% 38% -3.5%
≤90d 96 -1.6% -10.9% 86% 32% -13.4%
all 214 +1.6% -8.0% 92% 21% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 21% -9.1%
10% -16.8% 10% -17.8%
15% -24.9% 6% -25.8%
20% -32.2% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$292
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses197 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions37
Markets (closed)214 / 251
History coverage135d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 214 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $25 $21 −$4 (-18%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 47¢ 92¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+99%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 74¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 55¢ 94¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+71%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 88¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 68¢ 70¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Steve Marshall be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 95¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 84¢ 76¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 55¢ 82¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+50%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 30¢ 48¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 80¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Eileen Gu citizenship revoked ? No 83¢ 96¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 88¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on May Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +45%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Major US official out by May 31? Jun 12 $15 +$8 +56%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 12 $30 +$6 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $15 +$1 +4%
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of May 15 $4 $0 +3%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 12 $7 +$2 +32%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.9% in April? May 12 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8? May 09 $5 $0 +6%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30? May 03 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr May 03 $5 $0 +6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? May 03 $5 $0 +8%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 03 $5 +$1 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? May 03 $5 +$1 +27%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30? May 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in April? May 03 $15 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 01 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the DHS shutdown last 60 days or more? May 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 song on US Spotify this May 01 $10 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? May 01 $10 +$5 +50%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? May 01 $15 +$2 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? May 01 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026? Apr 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March? Apr 12 $15 +$9 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai SELL Mauricio Ruffy 99¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $4 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 75¢ $3 2h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $2 26h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $10 28h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $10 32h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $5 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 67¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 68¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $20 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $10 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $10 2d
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $10 2d
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $15 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 97¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $10 2d
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) BUY No 98¢ $6 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $292.00 · official $292.07 (match) · 517 history records