Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:43:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2B 0x2b17…fdbf sports 343 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$342 (-1%) realized −$340 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate72%234W / 91L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$104est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days−$79
14 days+$1
30 days+$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$139
other 10% −$67
crypto 2% −$248
politics 1% +$38
economics 1% +$54
world 0% +$8
finance 0% +$17
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +1.6% -8.1% 80% 65% -11.3%
≤30d 158 -1.7% -11.1% 73% 55% -7.7%
≤90d 232 -1.8% -11.2% 72% 55% -10.1%
all 325 -2.4% -11.7% 72% 54% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 54% -10.5%
10% -20.1% 31% -19.0%
15% -27.8% 18% -26.9%
20% -34.9% 8% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$54 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$1,203
Realized−$340
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses234 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$104
Open positions16
Markets (closed)325 / 343
History coverage248d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 325 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Under 78¢ 75¢ $780 $750 −$30 (-4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 66¢ 100¢ $60 $91 +$31 (+52%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 68¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 Under 90¢ 100¢ $45 $50 +$5 (+11%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? No 88¢ 86¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No 88¢ 73¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-17%)
Will Iran reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 84¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? No 93¢ 89¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? No 84¢ 80¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner T1 90¢ 84¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Under 86¢ 94¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 61¢ 61¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? Yes 91¢ 72¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 35¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $723 +$124 +17%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$2 +23%
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $5 +$1 +28%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $10 +$2 +21%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $971 −$266 -27%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $411 −$17 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$3 +26%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $101 +$31 +31%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $30 +$11 +37%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $10 +$4 +42%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $30 +$4 +14%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $20 +$2 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 −$30 -75%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 +$5 +48%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$3 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $10 +$1 +11%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $20 +$1 +5%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $30 +$4 +14%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 23 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$8 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$4 +10%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $20 +$1 +7%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $20 +$5 +24%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +12%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $120 +$6 +5%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $10 +$2 +17%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 +$3 +26%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$3 +13%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $10 +$3 +27%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 21 $20 +$6 +31%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $20 −$2 -11%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $785 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 86¢ $10 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $10 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $30 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 88¢ $50 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $5 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 85¢ $703 8h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 70¢ $705 8h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $971 8h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 8h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 89¢ $394 8h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 93¢ $401 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 78¢ $5 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 91¢ $10 9h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 87¢ $10 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $10 9h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 85¢ $20 11h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 93¢ $10 11h
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 81¢ $10 22h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29? BUY No 84¢ $20 22h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $10 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $10 26h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 26h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 85¢ $20 26h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $10 30h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 72¢ $30 30h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $30 30h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 21¢ $10 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,203.06 · official $1,203.06 (match) · 799 history records