Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:54:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2B 0x2b17…9394 other 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 694d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$101 (+6%) realized +$102 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%31W / 69L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days+$38
14 days+$50
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$6
other 27% +$93
crypto 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -31.0% -37.6% 29% 29% -7.0%
≤30d 96 -28.4% -35.2% 30% 30% -6.3%
≤90d 96 -28.4% -35.2% 30% 30% -6.3%
all 100 -25.4% -32.5% 31% 31% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 31% -3.9%
10% -39.0% 29% -13.1%
15% -44.9% 22% -21.5%
20% -50.3% 15% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$7 · ×2.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

694d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses31 / 69
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)100 / 107
History coverage694d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $35 +$23 +66%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 −$26 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $13 +$78 +588%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $0 $0 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $2 +$13 +650%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 +$22 +62%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $85 −$84 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 +$7 +650%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$38 +38%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $22 +$51 +227%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $22 −$22 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $71 +$23 +32%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $17 +$6 +36%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$10 +26%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $59 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $35 11h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 17h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 17h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 20h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.80 · official $39.80 (match) · 156 history records