Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:37:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b18…f0bf crypto 96 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-2%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate70%67W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$98
7 days−$49
14 days−$49
30 days−$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$54
politics 0% −$10
other 0% −$7
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -4.2% -13.4% 75% 55% -17.0%
≤30d 20 -4.2% -13.4% 75% 55% -17.0%
≤90d 20 -4.2% -13.4% 75% 55% -17.0%
all 96 -6.3% -15.2% 70% 44% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 44% -12.7%
10% -23.3% 20% -21.1%
15% -30.7% 14% -28.7%
20% -37.5% 4% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses67 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage163d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $66 +$24 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $57 −$35 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $12 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $46 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Mar 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 13 $29 +$12 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 13 $17 −$4 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 13 $35 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 13 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 13 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 01 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 01 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 01 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jan 15 $40 −$13 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 15 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 15 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 14 $120 −$7 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 14 $60 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jan 14 $80 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 14 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 14 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 14 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 14 $40 +$6 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 399 history records