Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2B 0x2b1b…00a1 other 40 markets active 14h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$80 (+10%) realized +$75 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%20W / 18L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days+$70
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$70
other 40% +$2
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +21.3% +9.8% 52% 48% +0.1%
≤30d 38 +17.4% +6.2% 53% 47% -1.6%
≤90d 38 +17.4% +6.2% 53% 47% -1.6%
all 38 +17.4% +6.2% 53% 47% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.2% 47% -1.6%
10% -4.0% 47% -11.0%
15% -13.3% 45% -19.6%
20% -21.8% 37% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$15 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses20 / 18
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage26d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $24 −$23 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$8 -76%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$5 -49%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 +$11 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$29 -95%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$5 -16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$15 -24%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$16 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 +$24 +79%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +48%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $41 +$62 +152%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$32 +309%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $15 −$10 -66%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $16 +$19 +123%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$21 +250%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $21 +$23 +110%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $12 +$28 +237%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -10%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 +$10 +56%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $24 +$25 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $24 +$10 +41%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch May 25 $5 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $40 15h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 33h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 33h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 33h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $5 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 35h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $10 42h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $15 42h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 42h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 42h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 42h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 44h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 3¢ $2 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $30 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 8¢ $10 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $25 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 36¢ $27 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $41 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $19 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.55 · official $34.55 (match) · 94 history records