Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:39:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b22…e297 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$78 (-26%) realized −$66 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%4W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$42
other 44% −$42
crypto 2% −$7
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -43.1% -48.5% 16% 16% -35.9%
≤30d 25 -43.1% -48.5% 16% 16% -35.9%
≤90d 25 -43.1% -48.5% 16% 16% -35.9%
all 25 -43.1% -48.5% 16% 16% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.5% 16% -35.9%
10% -53.4% 16% -42.0%
15% -57.9% 16% -47.6%
20% -62.0% 16% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -86% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$9 · ×3.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$66
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses4 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)25 / 27
History coverage2d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 42¢ 18¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-58%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 +$32 +79%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $27 −$27 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 +$40 +776%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $3 $0 -13%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$22 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 53m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $9 19h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $61 19h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 24h
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 24h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 27h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $41 30h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 30h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 30h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 43h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 43h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 44h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $27 47h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 47h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 47h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.95 · official $12.95 (match) · 36 history records