Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b23…4ecb crypto 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-28%) realized −$20 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$10
sports 24% −$10
other 17% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-43.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -37.5% -43.5% 22% 22% -27.9%
≤30d 9 -37.5% -43.5% 22% 22% -27.9%
≤90d 9 -37.5% -43.5% 22% 22% -27.9%
all 9 -37.5% -43.5% 22% 22% -27.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.5% 22% -27.9%
10% -48.9% 22% -34.8%
15% -53.8% 22% -41.1%
20% -58.4% 22% -46.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$20
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $25 $1 −$24 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $19 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$10 +195%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.36 · official $27.25 · 20 history records