Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2B 0x2b25…ff39 crypto 675 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$778 (-2%) realized −$829 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%500W / 168L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Fees−$296est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$260
7 days+$240
14 days−$578
30 days−$1,045
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% −$40
crypto 28% +$59
sports 23% −$331
other 13% −$431
politics 5% −$169
tech 1% −$51
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 282 +1.4% -8.2% 94% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 661 +0.4% -9.2% 75% 25% -11.6%
≤90d 668 +0.4% -9.2% 75% 25% -11.5%
all 668 +0.4% -9.2% 75% 25% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 25% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 10% -20.0%
15% -25.8% 2% -27.7%
20% -33.1% 1% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized−$829
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses500 / 168
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$296
Open positions7
Markets (closed)668 / 675
History coverage36d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 668 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 62¢ $98 $144 +$47 (+48%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 41¢ 72¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+74%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-16%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Olise 49¢ 33¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $34 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $17 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $17 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $45 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 26 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $57 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $45 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 26 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $189 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 26 $76 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $59 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $17 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $45 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $44 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $44 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $16 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 25 $45 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $54 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $198 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $87 +$245 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $122 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $31 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $17 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $3 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 25 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $36 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $17 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $36 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 25 $36 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$1 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $23 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $36 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $36 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $24 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $17 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $17 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $57 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $16 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $76 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $189 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $76 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $3 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $44 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $54 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.54 · official $180.89 (match) · 2030 history records