Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b25…5593 other 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$11 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate82%98W / 21L
Whale WR10%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$296per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3,535now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$11
14 days−$9
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$16
politics 21% −$17
other 15% −$23
world 3% +$19
weather 1% +$2
culture 0% +$2
tech 0% +$3
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +6.0% -4.1% 40% 20% -9.7%
≤30d 21 +4.6% -5.3% 71% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 24 +5.7% -4.4% 75% 12% -9.7%
all 119 +1.1% -8.5% 82% 18% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 18% -9.6%
10% -17.3% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.3% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.6% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 10% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$3,535
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses98 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)10%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions15
Markets (closed)119 / 135
History coverage632d
Avg bet$296
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 94¢ $3,112 $3,110 −$2 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $192 $191 −$1 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $144 $144 −$0 (-0%)
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 94¢ 94¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 90¢ 90¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on IPO day? No 93¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $26B? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+15%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 52¢ 51¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? No 94¢ 63¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-33%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $1,422 −$3 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,915 −$7 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +24%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Jun 21 $6 $0 +7%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +6%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $12 $0 +3%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $53 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $2,108 −$17 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 28? May 29 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 28? May 29 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 28? May 29 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 64-65°F on May 27? May 28 $22 +$2 +7%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,838 −$4 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $582 −$1 -0%
Will Drake release Iceman before GTA VI? May 27 $3 $0 +10%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 27 $5 $0 +8%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–A May 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 27 $8 $0 +6%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026? Apr 20 $3 +$1 +18%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 20 $5 $0 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Apr 20 $7 +$1 +16%
Human moon landing in 2026? Mar 09 $6 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? Mar 09 $7 +$1 +19%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 09 $16 $0 +3%
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO da Mar 09 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by February 14? Mar 09 $4 $0 +4%
Will Artemis II launch by February 7? Mar 09 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Forsen beat xQc's Minecraft speedrun record by February 28? Mar 09 $5 +$1 +14%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in January? Mar 09 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Mar 09 $7 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026 Feb 07 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026? Feb 07 $4 $0 +6%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Feb 07 $5 $0 +8%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of January? Feb 07 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be between 440m Feb 07 $6 $0 +3%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? Feb 07 $7 +$1 +19%
Will Artemis II launch by March 31? Jan 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 29 to January 31, 2026 Jan 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 28 $11 $0 +4%
Will Sweden win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jan 28 $15 $0 -2%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy A Jan 28 $3 $0 +16%
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Motion Picture – Animated at the 83rd Jan 28 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Britt Lower (Severance) win Best Actress – Television Drama at th Jan 28 $9 +$1 +9%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January? Jan 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 07 $3 $0 +1%
Will Santa deliver between 8,300,000,000 and 8,400,000,000 gifts for C Jan 07 $3 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $36 55m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $192 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $144 1h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $807 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $3,117 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $60 1h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $4 2h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $1,044 3h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $34 3h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $70 3h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $60 4h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $24 4h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $5 4h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $32 4h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $1 6h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $63 7h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $52 8h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $66 9h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $14 10h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $1 11h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $62 11h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $181 11h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $34 12h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $341 14h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $7 15h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $2 15h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $49 16h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $12 17h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $12 18h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $61 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,535.11 · official $3,540.11 (match) · 449 history records