Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:02:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b26…42f1 crypto 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2440 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,833 (+13%) realized +$1,832 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate42%123W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day2440.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,896now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2440 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 295 -20.2% -27.8% 42% 31% -20.4%
≤30d 295 -20.2% -27.8% 42% 31% -20.4%
≤90d 295 -20.2% -27.8% 42% 31% -20.4%
all 295 -20.2% -27.8% 42% 31% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2440.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.8% 31% -20.4%
10% ← realistic here -34.7% 23% -28.0%
15% -41.0% 16% -35.0%
20% -46.8% 9% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$22 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,896
Realized+$1,832
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses123 / 172
Open positions2
Markets (closed)295 / 232
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day2440.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 53¢ 46¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-12%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 43¢ 46¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 48¢ 54¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $517 −$517 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $216 −$216 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $206 −$206 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $7 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $8 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $6 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $8 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $8 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $6 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $8 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 9m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,895.52 · official $1,896.76 (match) · 3500 history records