Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2B 0x2b26…57e9 sports 303 markets active 13h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (140 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,835 (+14%) realized +$5,833 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%169W / 132L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day140.3pace
Fees−$741est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,688
other 1% −$35
world 0% +$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (140 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 168 -35.9% -42.0% 35% 28% -26.9%
≤30d 301 +8.1% -2.2% 56% 51% -5.9%
≤90d 301 +8.1% -2.2% 56% 51% -5.9%
all 301 +8.1% -2.2% 56% 51% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover140.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.2% 51% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -11.6% 49% -14.9%
15% -20.1% 47% -23.1%
20% -28.0% 42% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +51% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$89 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$5,833
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses169 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$741
Open positions2
Markets (closed)301 / 303
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$139
Trades / day140.3
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 62¢ 66¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 68¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $10 −$7 -69%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $11 +$9 +78%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $50 +$40 +80%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 +$19 +64%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $63 +$47 +75%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,693 +$776 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $359 +$306 +85%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $585 −$584 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $1,020 −$14 -1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $326 +$3 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $413 +$395 +96%
Will BetBoom qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $87 +$5 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $246 −$246 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$54 -54%
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $153 +$6 +4%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $285 −$284 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $168 +$92 +55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $466 −$151 -32%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Legacy qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $20 −$4 -19%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $114 +$14 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $66 −$39 -59%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $209 +$171 +82%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $153 +$117 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $212 +$32 +15%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,199 −$179 -15%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $782 +$417 +53%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $178 −$155 -87%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $576 +$79 +14%
Will PARIVISION qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $74 +$7 +9%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $282 +$168 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $48 +$32 +67%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $103 −$10 -10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $262 −$262 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $202 +$198 +98%
Will The MongolZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $16 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $225 −$96 -42%
Will B8 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $414 +$34 +8%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $78 −$78 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $112 −$62 -55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $652 +$388 +60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $284 −$123 -43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $311 +$79 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $593 −$518 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 44¢ $4 12h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 44¢ $4 12h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 45¢ $4 12h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 47¢ $9 12h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 46¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 49¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 16¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 47¢ $0 13h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 47¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 52¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 52¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 52¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 55¢ $8 13h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 55¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 56¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 57¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 57¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 57¢ $6 13h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 62¢ $4 13h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 59¢ $6 13h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 61¢ $6 13h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 49¢ $10 13h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $20 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 21¢ $3 13h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 53¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 59¢ $6 16h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 55¢ $11 17h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 55¢ $11 17h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY K27 56¢ $28 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 14¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.18 · official $41.18 (match) · 3500 history records