Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:29:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2B 0x2b2c…7acf other 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$34 (-0%) realized −$33 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate10%11W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$17
politics 24% −$9
sports 5% −$8
culture 3% −$2
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 +0.6% -9.0% 10% 7% -9.6%
all 105 +0.6% -9.0% 10% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 7% -9.6%
10% -17.7% 6% -18.3%
15% -25.7% 6% -26.2%
20% -33.0% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$536) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage89d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $172 $171 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $429 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $331 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $50 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $356 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 01 $109 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $367 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 24 $41 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $299 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $275 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $278 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $303 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 10 $276 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $293 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 08 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $586 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $301 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $280 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $309 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $291 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April? May 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 30 $309 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $312 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 26 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $1,178 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $312 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $293 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $313 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $311 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $311 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $297 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $304 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 15 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $586 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $172 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $62 8h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $62 10h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $55 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $55 5d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 7d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $50 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $50 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 11d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 12d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 15d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 16d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 23d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 23d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 24d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $109 24d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $283 28d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $283 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.07 · official $171.07 (match) · 325 history records