Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:19:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b2e…ed78 politics 30 markets active 9h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$96 (-0%) realized −$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$812per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$6
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% −$124
economics 8% −$1
other 3% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 29 -0.7% -10.2% 3% 0% -10.0%
all 29 -0.7% -10.2% 3% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$842) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage71d
Avg bet$812
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,764 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $821 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $825 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $825 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $831 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $833 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $834 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 12 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,108 −$57 -5%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $905 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $905 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $295 −$37 -12%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $944 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $945 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $28 32h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $816 6d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $817 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $817 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $818 10d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $818 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $819 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $819 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $820 15d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $819 16d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $821 17d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $819 21d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $820 22d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $820 23d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $821 24d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $827 25d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $828 26d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $823 28d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $825 29d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $824 30d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $825 31d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $830 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $831 33d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $830 34d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $831 35d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $831 36d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $833 37d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $832 38d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $833 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.03 · official $25.09 (match) · 106 history records