Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2B 0x2b31…d52b crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$41 (+1%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate93%14W / 1L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$407per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +4.8% -5.2% 93% 13% -7.7%
≤30d 15 +4.8% -5.2% 93% 13% -7.7%
≤90d 15 +4.8% -5.2% 93% 13% -7.7%
all 15 +4.8% -5.2% 93% 13% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 13% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -14.2% 13% -16.5%
15% -22.5% 0% -24.6%
20% -30.1% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$27 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.56 per $1 lost it wins $5.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses14 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$407
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $603 −$27 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $102 +$34 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $552 +$28 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 27 $551 +$22 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $550 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 27 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 27 $500 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $138 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $501 +$19 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $69 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $136 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $501 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $138 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $501 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records