Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:59:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b33…ccc0 crypto 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 543d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-2%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate85%93W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$30
other 9% −$12
tech 8% +$2
economics 3% +$1
culture 1% $0
politics 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
all 109 -10.9% -19.4% 85% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 0% -11.8%
10% -27.1% 0% -20.2%
15% -34.1% 0% -27.9%
20% -40.6% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses93 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage543d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 5? Jun 05 $97 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 01 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 07 $95 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 20 $94 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 February 2-8? Mar 16 $94 $0 +0%
Will Benny Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in January 2026? Jan 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $17 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 05 $11 +$1 +9%
Solana all time high before 2026? Jan 05 $21 $0 +2%
Will xAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jan 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? Dec 15 $21 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $22 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $13 $0 +4%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? Dec 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Google reach $380 in November? Dec 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Novemb Nov 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Nov 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 04 $16 $0 +1%
Farcaster airdrop in Q3 2025? Oct 04 $4 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 04 $17 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high by September 30? Oct 04 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 September 8–14? Sep 24 $13 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 24 $16 $0 +2%
Solana above $160 on August 11? Sep 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Sep 02 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 02 $20 +$1 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $6 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 25–August 1? Aug 03 $13 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Aug 03 $17 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 21 $13 −$6 -48%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 21 $26 −$15 -59%
Will Amazon purchase Bitcoin before July? Jul 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Jul 10 $2 $0 +1%
Rabby airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $5 $0 +5%
Linea airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 10 $6 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by June 30? Jul 10 $11 $0 +1%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 10 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 10 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 10 $22 +$1 +2%
Will Solana dip to $100 in May? Jun 06 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $97 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $97 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $95 44d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $95 61d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $94 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 February 2-8? BUY No 100¢ $94 131d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 100¢ $40 150d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $22 165d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 165d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 165d
Will xAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? BUY No 100¢ $45 187d
Solana all time high before 2026? BUY No 98¢ $21 198d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $21 198d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $22 198d
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 96¢ $13 216d
Will Google reach $380 in November? BUY No 100¢ $18 216d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 100¢ $15 216d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $17 227d
Will Solana reach $300 in November? BUY No 99¢ $16 227d
Will Sora by OpenAI be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Novemb BUY No 96¢ $14 227d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 99¢ $16 247d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $16 247d
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $12 259d
Will Benny Safdie win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 99¢ $12 259d
Ethereum all time high by September 30? BUY No 100¢ $17 268d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 99¢ $14 268d
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 98¢ $16 279d
Will Ethereum dip to $3600 September 8–14? BUY No 100¢ $13 279d
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? BUY No 100¢ $8 290d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 99¢ $17 290d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.76 · official $96.76 (match) · 226 history records