Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:11:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2B 0x2b33…bf1e sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%26W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$19
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$4
crypto 15% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -35.2% -41.4% 29% 29% -12.9%
≤30d 59 -15.6% -23.6% 44% 41% -9.0%
≤90d 59 -15.6% -23.6% 44% 41% -9.0%
all 59 -15.6% -23.6% 44% 41% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 41% -9.0%
10% -30.9% 39% -17.7%
15% -37.6% 37% -25.6%
20% -43.7% 34% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses26 / 33
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage30d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$2 -4%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 $0 -2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 +$15 +101%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 11 $6 +$4 +82%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 +$8 +165%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $10 +$11 +109%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $5 −$1 -15%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $20 +$3 +16%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $5 +$6 +124%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $20 +$21 +102%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $5 −$5 -99%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $10 +$5 +48%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $15 +$14 +93%
Dota 2: Rostikfacekid Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Serie Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 04 $5 +$5 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $12 −$12 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $21 +$24 +118%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Warwickshire May 29 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -94%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $20 −$20 -98%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Essex May 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals - Who w May 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $12 −$12 -98%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans - May 26 $2 +$2 +97%
T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Nottinghamshire May 26 $10 +$7 +66%
T20 Blast: Kent vs Sussex May 26 $10 +$13 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 25 $1 +$1 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $49 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 71¢ $15 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $15 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Hal BUY 31¢ $5 12h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 12h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 12h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 36h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over $5 36h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 37h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 3d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan $3 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 41¢ $19 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 35¢ $5 5d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 30¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 5d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 7d
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Yellow Submarine 55¢ $6 9d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 59¢ $10 9d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 100¢ $13 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY TYLOO 27¢ $5 11d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 37¢ $5 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 19¢ $5 12d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 47¢ $5 12d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 47¢ $5 12d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records