Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b34…b202 other 97 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 50d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,530 (-1%) realized −$1,400 · open −$130
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate71%63W / 26L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$1,118per market
Trades / day65.7pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$625now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 50d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 77% +$3,540
other 14% −$846
world 5% +$577
sports 4% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -1.4% -10.7% 64% 11% -8.4%
≤30d 75 +29.0% +16.7% 65% 24% -7.0%
≤90d 89 +25.6% +13.6% 71% 24% -6.7%
all 89 +25.6% +13.6% 71% 24% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.6% 24% -6.7%
10% +2.8% 18% -15.6%
15% ← realistic here -7.2% 15% -23.8%
20% -16.3% 10% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +53% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
18.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$65 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.46 per $1 lost it wins $3.46
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$625
Realized−$1,400
Unrealized−$130
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses63 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions56
Markets (closed)89 / 97
History coverage50d ⚠
Avg bet$1,118
Trades / day65.7
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 56 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $215 $213 −$3 (-1%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $156 $156 −$1 (-0%)
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 18¢ 34¢ $18 $34 +$16 (+86%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $55 $31 −$23 (-43%)
Will Donald Trump visit Belarus in 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Joe Pyfer next? No 50¢ 65¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? No 45¢ 54¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 96¢ 20¢ $48 $10 −$38 (-79%)
Clavicular sentenced to prison? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $25 $8 −$16 (-66%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $8 −$4 (-34%)
Will Mohamed Salah play in MLS next? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-33%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 63¢ 16¢ $25 $6 −$19 (-75%)
Will Anthony Hernandez fight Joe Pyfer next? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
MLB: Perfect Game thrown in 2026 season? No 50¢ 86¢ $3 $6 +$2 (+73%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $5 −$4 (-44%)
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026? No 56¢ 66¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 11¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 30¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-75%)
Will Caio Borralho fight Joe Pyfer next? No 50¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026? No 58¢ 55¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes $3 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 37¢ 12¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-66%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Massimiliano Allegri be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -97%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $551 +$2 +0%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $95 $0 +0%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 27 $53 $0 +0%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 27 $512 +$5 +1%
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $79 +$21 +26%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Egypt O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 27 $26 +$18 +72%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $68 +$10 +15%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $113 +$20 +18%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $34 $0 -0%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $80 −$1 -1%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 27 $158 −$54 -34%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $107 −$38 -36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 +$1 +6%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 27 $184 −$2 -1%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $179 +$2 +1%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $143 +$9 +6%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $58 +$1 +2%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $25 +$2 +7%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $47 +$1 +2%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 26 $57 +$1 +2%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $610 +$22 +4%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $2,707 +$158 +6%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $49 +$1 +2%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $445 +$5 +1%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $40 +$50 +122%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $32 +$1 +3%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $852 −$3 -0%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? Jun 25 $32 +$1 +3%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $56 +$1 +2%
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 25 $38 +$2 +5%
Türkiye to score first vs. United States? Jun 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $138 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $22 $0 +2%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $61 $0 +0%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $90 −$1 -1%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $102 +$2 +2%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 25 $328 −$123 -38%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $1,132 +$17 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $60,492 −$41 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $19,119 +$3,274 +17%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? Jun 06 $169 −$13 -8%
Will Israel win the first Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 06 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Luxembourg win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 06 $0 $0 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $44 5m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $210 17m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 44¢ $330 40m
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 26¢ $12 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 23¢ $0 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 23¢ $43 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 22¢ $19 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 22¢ $1 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $36 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL No 54¢ $103 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 20¢ $24 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score SELL No 53¢ $133 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 47¢ $47 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL No 53¢ $53 2h
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $275 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No 69¢ $172 3h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 68¢ $170 4h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No 69¢ $18 4h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No 69¢ $103 4h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No 69¢ $4 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No 69¢ $4 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 47¢ $47 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No 69¢ $22 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL No 69¢ $21 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $136 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $4 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $1 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $11 5h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY No 69¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $625.13 · official $623.31 (match) · 3500 history records