Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:18:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b35…0bfe sports 663 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d only
✗ bot/MM pace (714 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,305 (-4%) realized −$2,223 · open −$82
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%288W / 300L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day713.8pace
Fees−$653est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$7,449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$3,205
other 14% +$1,564
world 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (714 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 588 +0.6% -9.0% 49% 43% -12.8%
≤30d 588 +0.6% -9.0% 49% 43% -12.8%
≤90d 588 +0.6% -9.0% 49% 43% -12.8%
all 588 +0.6% -9.0% 49% 43% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover713.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 43% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 39% -21.1%
15% -25.6% 36% -28.7%
20% -32.9% 31% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$67 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$7,449
Realized−$2,223
Unrealized−$82
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses288 / 300
Est. fees paid−$653
Open positions99
Markets (closed)588 / 663
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$83
Trades / day713.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 99 History 588 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? No 97¢ 98¢ $389 $393 +$3 (+1%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? No 96¢ 98¢ $384 $391 +$7 (+2%)
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Power Rangers 84¢ 96¢ $252 $288 +$36 (+14%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 44¢ 85¢ $133 $255 +$122 (+92%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 82¢ 81¢ $244 $242 −$1 (-1%)
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage QoR 78¢ 76¢ $234 $226 −$7 (-3%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Under 56¢ 88¢ $113 $176 +$63 (+56%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 48¢ 50¢ $164 $171 +$6 (+4%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score No 59¢ 56¢ $176 $166 −$9 (-5%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 56¢ $156 $163 +$7 (+4%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Under 46¢ 52¢ $137 $154 +$17 (+13%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Team Nemesis 63¢ 50¢ $188 $151 −$36 (-19%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Team Nemesis 71¢ 50¢ $213 $151 −$61 (-29%)
Game Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Hive (+1.5) Power Rangers 59¢ 50¢ $178 $150 −$28 (-16%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 39¢ 73¢ $79 $150 +$71 (+89%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score No 49¢ 49¢ $147 $147 +$0 (+0%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score No 50¢ 48¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Team Nemesis 62¢ 50¢ $178 $145 −$33 (-18%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 48¢ $146 $142 −$3 (-2%)
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) SHISHKA 51¢ 46¢ $153 $136 −$16 (-11%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $133 $132 −$1 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Over 64¢ 64¢ $128 $127 −$1 (-1%)
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-18? No 54¢ 54¢ $127 $125 −$2 (-2%)
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage SaD Esports 44¢ 44¢ $123 $124 +$1 (+0%)
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 1 Winner Shopify Rebellion Black 65¢ 63¢ $119 $116 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Benin vs. Niger: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
América de Cali vs. CA Tigre: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida vs. OC Safi: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Kyrgios vs. Moutet: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 2 - 2 Liverpool FC? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Fiji vs. Vanuatu: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 2 - 1 Liverpool FC? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AS FAR win on 2026-06-04? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
RCA Zemamra vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Aston Villa FC 3 - 0 Liverpool FC? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $80 +$120 +150%
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $74 +$26 +35%
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5) Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir: HUS Agadir O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Play Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Game Handicap: SB (-1.5) vs Spirit Academy (+1.5) Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $80 −$80 -100%
RS Berkane vs. OC Safi: RS Berkane O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $81 −$81 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Olympic Dcheira vs. AS FAR: Olympic Dcheira O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $78 −$78 -100%
RS Berkane vs. OC Safi: RS Berkane O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. FathUnionSport: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $115 −$115 -100%
Zverev vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $114 −$114 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $153 −$153 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 18 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $213 −$213 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $205 −$205 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $48 +$81 +170%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $76 +$81 +107%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $4 +$1 +32%
US Yacoub El Mansour vs. HUS Agadir: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $0 $0 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 42¢ $13 5m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $200 8m
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 14¢ $14 17m
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) BUY SHISHKA 51¢ $41 19m
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $100 21m
Game Handicap: YG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) BUY InterActive Philippines 48¢ $8 22m
Game Handicap: YG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) BUY InterActive Philippines 48¢ $2 23m
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 62¢ $62 23m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 27¢ $0 27m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 27¢ $1 27m
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 41¢ $38 28m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $129 28m
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 42¢ $1 29m
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $9 31m
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) BUY SHISHKA 51¢ $5 33m
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 27¢ $20 33m
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) BUY SHISHKA 51¢ $5 34m
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) BUY SHISHKA 51¢ $46 34m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $39 34m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $1 38m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $3 39m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 50¢ $5 41m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 50¢ $1 43m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 50¢ $1 45m
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 49¢ $49 46m
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 50¢ $3 46m
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 43¢ $43 47m
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 45¢ $2 47m
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) BUY SHISHKA 51¢ $5 49m
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) BUY SHISHKA 51¢ $51 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,448.74 · official $7,448.90 (match) · 3500 history records