Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:47:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b37…7715 world 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate39%18W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$7
other 33% +$2
politics 23% +$2
tech 6% −$21
sports 5% −$11
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 +1.2% -8.4% 33% 8% -9.5%
≤90d 24 -0.8% -10.3% 25% 4% -10.4%
all 46 -0.6% -10.0% 39% 11% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 11% -10.4%
10% -18.7% 2% -19.0%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.8%
20% -33.7% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses18 / 28
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage531d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 56¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $70 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $33 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $33 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $8 $0 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $69 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 26 $39 +$1 +3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $131 −$22 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $130 +$7 +5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $78 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $23 −$6 -27%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $223 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $223 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $223 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $222 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $222 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 31 $3 $0 +0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 30 $223 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $7 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? May 29 $7 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 29 $7 $0 +2%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 28 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 26 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $7 $0 +2%
Will Crystal Palace vs. Everton end in a draw? Mar 21 $7 +$3 +39%
La Salle vs. St. Joseph's Feb 13 $6 +$1 +12%
Grambling State vs. Alabama A&M Feb 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Taylor Swift shown on the Super Bowl LIX broadcast 5 times? Feb 09 $11 $0 -1%
Will Trump appeal his hush money conviction? Feb 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will POTUS tweet 10-14 times Jan 22-29? Feb 05 $10 +$2 +16%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Mungo vs. MINH Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Jan 26 $18 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $33 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $3 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $34 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $34 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $3 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $29 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $33 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $33 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $30 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $36 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $33 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $33 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $33 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 12¢ $4 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $32 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $32 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.21 · official $33.01 (match) · 143 history records