Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b3c…c2e9 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%8W / 32L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$12
other 30% −$13
tech 15% +$8
sports 11% −$4
crypto 1% −$20
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 5 +0.4% -9.2% 20% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 22 +0.1% -9.5% 14% 0% -9.7%
all 40 -3.2% -12.4% 20% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$629) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses8 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage223d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $109 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $109 +$3 +3%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 11 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $921 −$2 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $922 −$3 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $930 −$4 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 11 $972 −$3 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $629 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $629 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 08 $39 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $477 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $478 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $478 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 07 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $479 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Mar 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Mar 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Feb 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $77 +$1 +2%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? Feb 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Claude 5 be released on February 13, 2026? Feb 13 $1 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Feb 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Feb 12 $186 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Feb 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $37 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 6? Jan 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 17 $34 +$3 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 23 $12 $0 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 20 $21 −$9 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $109 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $106 1h
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $106 2h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $109 26h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $109 42h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $110 42h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $111 43h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 43h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 44h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $109 28d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $915 36d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $916 36d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $916 36d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $918 36d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $919 36d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $921 36d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $918 36d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $922 36d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $924 36d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $925 36d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $926 36d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $927 36d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $926 36d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $930 36d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $930 36d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $933 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 100¢ $116 47d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $115 60d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $114 63d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $114 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.94 · official $108.94 (match) · 106 history records