Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T12:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2b3d…8db7
other · 170 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$11,130 +206%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,701 · open −$60
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$927
Realized−$2,701
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses45 / 174
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions302
Markets (closed)219 / 170
History coverage15d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day231.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%
Chart Positions 302 History 219 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,838
7 days−$2,747
14 days−$2,638
30 days−$2,701
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $40 $50 +$10 (+26%)
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? No 9¢ 10¢ $43 $48 +$5 (+11%)
Will Grigor Dimitrov be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $32 $37 +$5 (+16%)
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $18 $35 +$17 (+94%)
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 2¢ 43¢ $2 $33 +$32 (+2007%)
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $21 $28 +$7 (+35%)
Will Cameron Norrie be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+12%)
Will Romelu Lukaku be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $24 +$10 (+75%)
Will Barbora Krejčíková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $6 $22 +$17 (+302%)
Will Ohio State Buckeyes win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Yes 1¢ 11¢ $2 $22 +$20 (+1099%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 13¢ 13¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+0%)
Will Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Yes 1¢ 9¢ $2 $18 +$16 (+881%)
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $14 $18 +$4 (+25%)
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $22 $15 −$7 (-34%)
Will Oregon Ducks win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Yes 1¢ 7¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+641%)
Will Madison Keys win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+69%)
Will Granit Xhaka record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 7¢ $2 $12 +$11 (+630%)
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+496%)
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Will Miami Hurricanes win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Yes 1¢ 6¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+500%)
Will Indiana Hoosiers win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+450%)
Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+434%)
Will Declan Rice win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Luka Modrić record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+440%)
Will Alabama Crimson Tide win the 2027 CFP National Championship? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+391%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs M Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Titouan Droguet vs Jakub Mensik Jun 14 $3 −$6 -199%
Will Jelena Ostapenko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 14 $0 −$1 -355%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Carnell Tate be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Iva Jovic win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bianca Andreescu win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Ukraine win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Mayar Sherif Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Rueben Bain Jr. be drafted 7th overall in the 2026 pro football d Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 14 $84 −$57 -68%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Tōkyō win on 2026-05-23? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 14 $84 −$111 -132%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Romania win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Canadian Gran Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 14 $48 −$45 -95%
Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 14 $9 +$8 +89%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 14 $51 −$25 -49%
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 14 $6 −$11 -182%
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Jesper de Jong Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Katie Volynets vs Clara Burel Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 14 $0 +$64 +2663217%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaume Munar vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jermod McCoy be drafted 9th overall in the 2026 pro football draf Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Caleb Downs be drafted 6th overall in the 2026 pro football draft Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Marta Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 63% −$488
sports 18% −$162
politics 7% −$334
crypto 6% −$188
culture 4% −$51
world 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Memphis Depay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will Memphis Depay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 TOUR Championship? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 19m
Will Nico Echavarria win the 2026 TOUR Championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20m
Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 TOUR Championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20m
Will Coco Gauff be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 22m
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24m
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24m
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24m
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 25m
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 25m
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $11 26m
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26m
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26m
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 27m
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 28m
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 28m
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 28m
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 28m
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 28m
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 28m
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $4 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 30m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 193 +10.3% -0.2% 17% 15% -66.4%
≤30d 219 +26.7% +14.6% 21% 18% -58.8%
≤90d 219 +26.7% +14.6% 21% 18% -58.8%
all 219 +26.7% +14.6% 21% 18% -58.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover231.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.6% 18% -58.8%
10% ← realistic here +3.6% 16% -62.8%
15% -6.4% 15% -66.4%
20% -15.6% 13% -69.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $927.46 · official $927.51 (match) · 3500 history records