Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b3d…4667 crypto 117 markets active 5d ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate38%45W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day28.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$16
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$20
sports 34% −$9
other 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -6.4% -15.3% 53% 8% -15.3%
≤30d 58 -6.0% -14.9% 47% 9% -13.8%
≤90d 117 -5.8% -14.7% 38% 11% -13.2%
all 117 -5.8% -14.7% 38% 11% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 11% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.9% 6% -21.5%
15% -30.3% 6% -29.1%
20% -37.2% 4% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses45 / 72
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)117 / 117
History coverage48d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 117 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $19 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $23 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Saudi Arabia Jun 09 $16 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 57¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 77¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 78¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 69¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 75¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 71¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? SELL No 4¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1420 history records