trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +15.8% | +4.7% | 80% | 20% | -2.8% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +12.8% | +2.1% | 67% | 17% | -4.7% |
| all | 22 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 55% | 9% | -7.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.8% | 9% | -7.4% |
| 10% | -18.4% | 9% | -16.2% |
| 15% | -26.3% | 9% | -24.3% |
| 20% | -33.5% | 9% | -31.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 51¢ | 51¢ | $51 | $51 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 22 | $14 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 27 | $37 | +$1 | +3% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 27 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $54 | +$2 | +3% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 24 | $10 | +$8 | +73% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 23 | $38 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%? | Jun 24 | $1 | $0 | -20% |
| Will Andrey Rublev win the 2025 French Open? | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Jun 02 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? | Apr 26 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? | Apr 26 | $10 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? | Apr 19 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump x Putin talk by Friday? | Apr 18 | $9 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 30 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? | Mar 25 | $2 | −$2 | -71% |
| Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 21-28? | Mar 23 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? | Mar 22 | $14 | $0 | +2% |
| Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | Mar 19 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Georgia vs. South Carolina | Mar 04 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Charleston vs. Northeastern | Mar 03 | $7 | +$7 | +100% |