Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2b40…ced4
weather · 519 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$529 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$541 · open −$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$67
Realized+$541
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses282 / 474
Open positions9
Markets (closed)756 / 519
Avg bet$30
Trades / day85.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 9 History 756 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$952
7 days−$307
14 days−$56
30 days+$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? No 51¢ 59¢ $18 $20 +$3 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? No 55¢ 57¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? No 73¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? No 58¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? No 58¢ 52¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? No 35¢ 32¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? No 3¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? No 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 18? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 20? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? No 2¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 25? No 14¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25? No 22¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 23? No 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 11? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 28? No 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 2? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 14? No 29¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 26? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? No 17¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? No 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 22? No 26¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 6? No 8¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 18? Jun 12 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 20? Jun 12 $1 −$2 -114%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 23? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +643%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 11? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 2? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 26? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +124%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30? Jun 12 $8 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on April 29? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 22? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 11? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +187%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on April 15? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on March 22? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 26? Jun 12 $1 −$7 -1315%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 17? Jun 12 $1 −$4 -267%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on March Jun 12 $1 $0 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 14? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -106%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 16? Jun 12 $1 −$7 -898%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 29? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 20? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 2? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 26? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on April 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 16°C on April 17? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -493%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on April 20? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 29? Jun 12 $1 −$2 -187%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 3? Jun 12 $11 −$13 -124%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 28? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 15? Jun 12 $2 −$3 -147%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 20°C on April 24? Jun 12 $2 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 28? Jun 12 $1 −$5 -645%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C or higher on April Jun 12 $0 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 29? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 29? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 6 Jun 12 $0 +$1 +147%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 17? Jun 12 $4 −$5 -126%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 22? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 10? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 2? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 15? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 4? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +309%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 3? Jun 12 $4 −$5 -123%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on April 27? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on March 18? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C or higher on March 14? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 17? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 23? Jun 12 $8 −$9 -109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1,695
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $6 20m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 50¢ $3 47m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 50¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $1 48m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 50¢ $9 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 58¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 35¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 58¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 56¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 73¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 1¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $53 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 95¢ $49 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 95¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 51¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 36¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 34¢ $35 4h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 5¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 43¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $44 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $50 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 345 -28.3% -35.1% 23% 19% -11.2%
≤30d 628 -16.9% -24.8% 34% 27% -5.1%
≤90d 756 -13.4% -21.6% 37% 29% -4.0%
all 756 -13.4% -21.6% 37% 29% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover85.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.6% 29% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.1% 24% -13.2%
15% -36.0% 19% -21.6%
20% -42.3% 14% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.46 · official $67.46 (match) · 3500 history records