Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:31:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2B 0x2b42…c87a world 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 31L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$4
other 19% $0
politics 15% $0
sports 7% $0
tech 6% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.0% -6.8% 50% 25% -9.1%
≤30d 16 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 16 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 6% -8.8%
all 53 +0.2% -9.3% 42% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -9.1%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage280d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $32 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $11 −$1 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $67 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $30 +$1 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $56 +$3 +5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $89 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 04 $1 $0 -6%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 04 $24 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 04 $3 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 04 $32 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 02 $17 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Oct 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $66 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $34 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 26 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 25 $9 $0 +3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Sep 23 $25 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Sep 22 $25 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 19 $6 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 28h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 30h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $33 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $20 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $13 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $4 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $15 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $15 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $36 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $36 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $19 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $14 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $8 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $23 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $2 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $16 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.47 · official $36.47 (match) · 187 history records