Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:27:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2B 0x2b43…7829 crypto 338 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$841 (-15%) realized −$803 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%182W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day35.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$263
14 days−$301
30 days−$357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$1,190
sports 4% −$46
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -16.9% -24.8% 42% 40% -27.9%
≤30d 61 -21.8% -29.2% 41% 36% -28.1%
≤90d 334 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 47% -28.9%
all 334 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 47% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 47% -28.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.2% 38% -35.7%
15% -33.3% 22% -41.9%
20% -39.8% 16% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$803
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses182 / 152
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)334 / 338
History coverage44d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 334 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $48 $60 +$12 (+25%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $51 $29 −$22 (-42%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 24? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $41 $25 −$16 (-40%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 24? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $20 $7 −$13 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$13 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $40 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $58 −$43 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$2 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 19 $185 −$8 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $12 +$8 +73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $88 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$18 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$11 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$7 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 19 $196 −$45 -23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 19 $91 −$11 -13%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $16 +$26 +160%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 +$22 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 17 $124 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$3 +31%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 17 $39 −$9 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 17 $70 −$35 -50%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 15 $45 −$3 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 24? BUY Yes 4¢ $43 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 2¢ $30 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 5¢ $32 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY No 0¢ $1 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY No 0¢ $1 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY No 0¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.25 · official $124.11 · 1735 history records