Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:28:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2B 0x2b48…727c crypto 285 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (225 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$671 (+7%) realized +$680 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%170W / 114L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day225.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$575
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (225 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 284 +0.3% -9.3% 60% 50% -3.6%
≤30d 284 +0.3% -9.3% 60% 50% -3.6%
≤90d 284 +0.3% -9.3% 60% 50% -3.6%
all 284 +0.3% -9.3% 60% 50% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover225.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 50% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 42% -12.8%
15% -25.9% 40% -21.2%
20% -33.1% 39% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$28 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$680
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses170 / 114
Open positions1
Markets (closed)284 / 285
History coverage4d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day225.1
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 33¢ 14¢ $15 $6 −$9 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$12 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$27 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$45 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$11 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $79 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$21 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $131 +$127 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $275 −$61 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$20 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$10 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $294 +$194 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $178 +$119 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $463 −$463 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $239 −$232 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $98 −$95 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$186 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $94 −$91 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$21 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$31 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $44 +$38 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$17 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$8 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $13 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $11 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.21 · official $11.27 · 1179 history records