Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2B
0x2b49…3f61
sports · 222 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
+$4 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses124 / 94
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)218 / 222
History coverage232d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 4 History 218 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$20
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Atalanta vs. AC Milan end in a draw? No 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Hornets Bucks 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Heat 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Ulsan HD FC vs. Jeju SK FC end in a draw? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Kings Kings 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Brøndby IF win on 2025-12-01? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Sweden win on 2025-11-18? Yes 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Jazz Bulls 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Under 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Bulls 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. Maryland Terrapins UNLV Runnin Rebels 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Tunisia win on 2025-11-12? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers Celtics 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2025-10-27? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Warriors 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-11-06? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Pelicans Hornets 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2025-10-24? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2025-10-27? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Cagliari vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$2 +165%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 +$3 +309%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$1 -73%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$1 +54%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +122%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Manchester United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $5 +$3 +72%
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2025-12-05? Dec 30 $2 +$3 +127%
Suns vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5 Dec 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Dec 02 $7 +$2 +24%
Will Rayo Vallecano vs. Valencia end in a draw? Dec 02 $2 +$5 +233%
Will Brøndby IF win on 2025-12-01? Dec 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-01? Dec 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Pelicans vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5 Dec 01 $12 +$10 +85%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Dec 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $2 +$3 +144%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Nov 30 $3 −$2 -74%
Spread: PSV (-2.5) Nov 30 $1 +$1 +72%
Will US Lecce vs. Torino FC end in a draw? Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Crystal Palace vs. Manchester United: O/U 2.5 Nov 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $1 +$1 +132%
Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $3 +$2 +82%
Will Kashiwa Reysol win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $3 +$2 +56%
Pistons vs. Heat Nov 30 $5 +$3 +54%
Will Ulsan HD FC vs. Jeju SK FC end in a draw? Nov 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Bayern München (-2.5) Nov 30 $1 +$1 +108%
Pelicans vs. Warriors Nov 30 $5 +$1 +23%
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5) Nov 30 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $2 $0 -6%
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $2 $0 -3%
Spread: Tigres de la UANL (-1.5) Nov 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $2 +$1 +61%
Bayern München vs. FC St. Pauli: O/U 3.5 Nov 30 $3 +$3 +85%
Will 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $5 +$4 +75%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-29? Nov 30 $7 +$2 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% +$1
other 42% +$4
politics 1% $0
world 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $7 34m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 34m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3 34m
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Paraguay 76¢ $4 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Paraguay 4¢ $1 1h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 18¢ $1 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 62¢ $3 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 10¢ $1 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 23¢ $1 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $2 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 79¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 55¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $2 17h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $1 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $5 19h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $4 24h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 82¢ $11 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 41h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 41h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 41h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 41h
Manchester United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2 164d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-30? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 164d
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +53.0% +38.4% 77% 77% +34.9%
≤30d 13 +53.0% +38.4% 77% 77% +34.9%
≤90d 13 +53.0% +38.4% 77% 77% +34.9%
all 218 +2.1% -7.6% 57% 56% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 56% -8.8%
10% -16.4% 50% -17.5%
15% -24.5% 40% -25.5%
20% -31.9% 33% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.52 · official $15.52 (match) · 382 history records